What's Next For Mousinho's Pompey?

Pompey beat the drop to secure Championship safety—but were the roots of their revival planted long before?

Given that this is my first article, it made sense to start with the club closest to home—Portsmouth. A club that, not so long ago, won the FA Cup, hosted AC Milan on a European night at Fratton Park, and for a while, managed to convince the rest of the footballing world they knew what they were doing.

What followed made it clear they didn’t: years of financial mismanagement, successive relegations, and a revolving door of owners whose intentions were, at best, unclear. Administration became routine. Points deductions stacked up. And with every setback, supporters braced for the next to be the fatal one.

When liquidation stopped being a threat and became a deadline, the fans stepped in. In 2013, the Pompey Supporters’ Trust took over and—just like that—Portsmouth became the largest fan-owned football club in English history. Not exactly a headline for ambition, but necessary to keep the lights on and the badge intact.

A few years later, just after Portsmouth clawed their way back into League One, Michael Eisner—yes, that Michael Eisner, former Disney CEO—bought the club for £5.67 million through his firm, The Tornante Company. Fans were cautiously optimistic, having learned not to hold their breath. Eisner and his consortium promised sustainable progress, one step at a time. Not exactly the Wrexham-style takeover many supporters might have hoped for—no Hollywood stars, no Netflix cameras. Just steady, quiet work. Portsmouth’s path was, and remains, all about grinding forward with what could charitably be called modest ambition.

We're Mous-ing On Up Now...

Progress often comes at a price. Former Head Coaches Kenny Jackett and Danny Cowley both had their chances but, ultimately, fell short in the eyes of the Fratton faithful and board alike. As pressure mounted and results remained inconsistent, neither quite managed to meet expectations.

Their departures cleared the way for a new direction—a chance to bring in a younger, more dynamic Head Coach with a clear, player-focused approach. That someone was John Mousinho. Working alongside Rich Hughes, former Forest Green Rovers Director of Football responsible for recruitment and the club’s wider sporting strategy, this partnership quickly proved effective. The results, backed by the numbers, left little doubt—this was the right call.

Mousinho vs. Cowley

What About This Season?

In recent years, Portsmouth have been defined by their pursuit of promotion. But this season brought a different kind of challenge. Now back in the Championship, the objective was simple: survival. It’s no secret that most supporters would’ve gladly accepted safety before a ball was even kicked.

The campaign had its ups and downs—moments of promise and spells of struggle—but ultimately, Mousinho prevailed. A memorable victory over Watford at Fratton Park in April sealed the club’s safety with time to spare. For some, the sense of pride and relief that followed even rivaled the euphoria of the promotion the year before.

Naturally, as the dust settles, the pre-season questions resurface. Would Mousinho adapt? Could his approach withstand the step up in quality? Broadly speaking, the answer was yes. His core principles remained intact. Out of possession, Portsmouth stayed aggressive—pressing high, disrupting build-up play, and looking to impose themselves even against stronger opposition. At times, that approach carried risk and left them vulnerable—a growing concern among fans all season.

Portsmouth’s high press came with a catch: lapses in discipline left them stretched, gifting space to teams who didn’t need asking twice. The result? Transitions, transitions, transitions. At this level, opponents don’t wait—they pounce. Something Portsmouth discovered far too often.

At times, Mousinho’s more direct style severely compounded these issues. Instead of deploying more controlled build-up to manage tempo and suppress transitions at source, Portsmouth played forward at speed—inviting chaos and losing shape in the process. The data tells a similar story: defending transitions wasn’t an outlier—it was a persistent flaw. And Mousinho was searching for answers until the very end.

Defensive Metrics

Championship | Season 2024-25

The Numbers Don't Lie...

Amid the euphoria of survival, it’s easy to overlook the underlying numbers. Portsmouth’s Championship survival was a hard-fought reward for resilience, but the data shows there’s still work to be done. Mousinho’s side conceded 67 goals—the third-worst tally in the division. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 67.11 tells the same story: this wasn’t the result of persistent misfortune, wonder goals, or goalkeeper errors. Rather, it points more convincingly to defensive issues rooted in Mousinho’s approach.

In stark contrast, Burnley produced one of the season’s defining narratives through their defensive superlatives. With an expected goals against (xGA) of around 36, they somehow conceded just 16 goals all season—setting a new record for the fewest ever in a single English league campaign. From December to March, they went 12 league matches without conceding. A remarkable feat, even if we’re still scratching our heads a little as to how.

For Portsmouth, the problems extended beyond open play. Set pieces posed a clear threat—conceding 16 goals from dead-ball situations, the fifth-worst in the league. And with an xGA of 18.25, a case could be made that they were perhaps fortunate not to concede more.

One particular issue that stood out was their defending of transitions. Of the 42 counter-attacks they faced, 11 resulted in goals—an alarming 26% success rate for opponents. Why? As ever, the answer isn’t simple. However, Portsmouth's in-possession tendencies were likely aggravating matters. But to understand how, let's first dissect how Direct Speed can be used to characterize team's in-possession style.

Direct Speed (DS) measures how quickly a team advances the ball up-field toward the opponent’s goal, calculated by dividing the distance covered by the time taken. In the animation above, the ball travels 69.2 meters from point A (the start of possession) to point B (the end point) in approximately 4 seconds, resulting in a high DS value of 17.7 m/s. Sequences like this capture the essence of a direct attacking style—fast, purposeful, and focused on progressing with minimal buildup.

By contrast, lower DS values reflect a more patient, possession-based approach—characterized by shorter, safer passes and longer, more deliberate buildup phases. A style increasingly popular among clubs that adhere to the idea that predictable passing patterns should expect more consistent ball progression—one that often frustrates many supporters weary of repeated sideways and backward passes, but aligns neatly with so many club's data-driven approach, designed to maximize the likelyhood of satisfying final third entries.

As for Portsmouth, it comes as little surprise to see their DS (1.98) as the highest of any Championship side this season. Only Millwall (2.34) and Luton (2.42) recorded fewer passes per sequence than Portsmouth’s (2.46), underscoring their commitment to a direct, vertical approach. Out of curiosity, we’ve included Portsmouth’s 2023/24 figures—DS (1.86) and passes per sequence (3.18)—to assess any alterations to Mousinho's approach.

In comparison to last season, Portsmouth’s DS remained relatively high, continuing their intent to advance play quickly. However, this season saw a sharper drop in passes per sequence points to a more cautious, pragmatic approach from Mousinho—likely aimed at minimizing risky turnovers near their own goal against stronger opposition. Seems reasonable, right? Yes, but with fewer passes per sequence comes an increased likelihood of losing control over where possession ends—making it more difficult to suppress opposition transitions at source. Given how often they were punished from fast breaks, the question remains whether Mousinho will look to tweak the balance next season in favor of greater control during build-up.

Pompey Packing Punches Upfront

Much of the conversation around Mousinho's approach has centred on its defensive risks. And yes, there were vulnerabilities. But to focus solely on that would overlook a key part of the story—Portsmouth’s attacking output was, at times, impressive. With several standout performers driving the charge, Pompey played with aggression and dynamism in the final third, regularly carving out chances through progressive carries, dangerous crosses, and well-worked set pieces. But first, the bigger picture—how did Pompey’s attacking unit perform as a whole?

Attacking Metrics

Championship | Season 2024-25

Portsmouth’s attacking intent in their Championship return gave fans plenty to be excited about. This wasn’t a side just looking to survive—they attacked with an aggressive, sometimes chaotic edge. Characterized by aggressive forward runs, spontaneous carries, and a willingness to shoot on sight. It wasn’t always polished, but it was purposeful. They scored 57 goals with an expected goals (xG) of 54.87, a slight overperformance that hinted at added clinical sharpness. While they didn’t challenge the league’s top scorers, it remains a front-footed return that signaled real momentum—and a platform to build from.

Where Portsmouth found real joy was from set pieces, converting 15 goals from dead-ball situations—matching or outscoring the likes of West Brom, Burnley, and Coventry. With a set-piece xG of 15.58, they ranked just behind four teams in the league: Millwall (17), Luton (17), Oxford (21), and Derby (22). For a newly promoted side, set pieces proved to be a crucial attacking weapon—one Portsmouth will be eager to sharpen even further next season.

Top Scorers

Championship | Season 2024-25 | Top 50

Colby, Callum & the Curious Case of Josh Murphy

Colby Bishop led the line with his usual blend of reliability and grit—8 goals from open play (11 including penalties) is no small return. With a non-penalty xG of 10.65 (13.8 including penalties), he slightly underperformed the numbers, but his movement and ability to find the right spaces made him a dependable focal point in Portsmouth’s fight for survival.

Callum Lang told a slightly different story—but ended in a similar place. He was marginally more prolific, scoring 8 goals from 7.76 xG (10 from 9.74 including penalties), showing a modest edge in efficiency. While their styles differ—Bishop thrives on positioning, Lang often makes things happen—their finishing sharpness ended up neck and neck.

A glance below Portsmouth in the table throws up a few forwards who quietly impressed. Preston’s Emil Riis and Milutin Osmajic edged ahead of their expected numbers, but one name leaps out: Cardiff’s Callum Robinson. He struck 12 goals from just 7.76 non-penalty xG—a remarkable overperformance of nearly 5 goals in a side anchored to the foot of the table. Unsurprisingly, a few clubs have been linked with the 30-year-old during the off-season.

As for Portsmouth’s standout performer—back-to-back Player of the Season and firm fan favourite—Josh Murphy embodied the bold, front-foot approach John Mousinho has brought to Fratton Park. A dynamic, high-risk wide forward, Murphy was the only Pompey attacker to outperform his xG. But dig into the numbers, and it’s a curious picture: his conversion rate sits at just 6.6%, well below any of the league’s top scorers. How come? Murphy tends to convert chances he’s expected to score, but his low overall conversion rate shows he’s also more willing than most to shoot from difficult positions. It’s the kind of shot selection that drags the conversion rate down—but also produces the odd screamer. Pompey fans won’t be surprised. They’ve seen him try the outrageous—and occasionally, pull it off.

Top Creators

Championship | Season 2024-25 | Top 50

As for matters less curious, Murphy’s capacity to assist—14 in total—bettered that of any other player in the Championship, matched only by Tom Fellows of West Brom. He ranked 5th for assists per 90 (0.37), which perhaps came as little surprise to the Fratton faithful, who had grown familiar with Murphy’s tireless endeavor to create.

Now, I have my reservations—assists are a static metric, fraught with ambiguity for reasons I’ll no doubt unpack in future articles. But given the context—a wide player in a relegation-threatened side, who typically wouldn’t be expected to rank among the league’s best—Murphy’s output deserves enormous praise.

However, the accolades don't stop there. Murphy ranked 6th for average progressive carry distance (14.1), and nobody performed more carries that ended with more shots (47), nor assists (9) than Murphy this season. Numbers he'll be keen to emulate next season.

Looking Ahead To Next Season...

With the new season fast approaching, Portsmouth have shown they can handle the demands of the Championship. After securing survival last season, the focus now is on progress. Can they build on that foundation and push further up the table, or is staying up still the main priority?

Last season was an obvious reminder of how quickly things can change. Mousinho faced heavy early pressure, but the Eisners stayed patient—and that ultimately faith paid off. Portsmouth found their form, turned results around, and finished the campaign on solid ground.

This year, the challenge will be even greater. The Championship remains unpredictable, and with Charlton, Wrexham, and Birmingham arriving full of momentum from League One, the competition will be fierce. Adding to the intensity, Southampton—one of last season’s Premier League dropouts—return to reignite one of football’s fiercest rivalries. After more than 13 years apart, they’ll once again face Portsmouth in the same division. Their only meeting since? A punishing 4-0 defeat at Fratton Park back in 2019—a painful memory Saints fans love to recall, but one Pompey fans would much rather forget.

Predicting the Championship table at this stage is no easy feat—but one I cannot refuse. There’s still plenty to unfold even before the first whistle in August, but by compiling key metrics including recent form, squad value, revenue, and league pedigree, we can begin to separate the contenders from the rest. So, who’s on the rise, who’s at risk—and where do Portsmouth fit into the mix?

League Standings Prediction

Championship | Season 2025-26

Ambitions Altered, But Reality Repeats?

Early-season optimism always sparks hope—even when tempered by a hint of uncertainty. For Portsmouth, there’s a growing belief this Championship campaign could be more than just a battle to avoid the drop. With a Power Ranking of 78, they’re projected to finish 14th—a steady improvement from last season’s nerve-wracking 16th-place finish. Survival remains the priority, but ambitions for a mid-table finish no longer seem so far-fetched.

Looking higher, Pompey fans won’t find comfort in noticing Southampton as favourites for the Championship title with a PR of 94.8. Despite some potential disruption of a new Head Coach in Will Still, the Saints remain best placed to return to the Premier League at the first attempt.

Amid the newly promoted sides, expectations couldn’t be more contrasting. Birmingham City are forecasted to finish 4th, fueled by a robust Power Ranking of 90.7—a signal of their pursuit of automatic promotion. Many have already backed Wrexham to follow suit, but with a PR of just 83, they're forecasted to fall short, finishing 10th—still a solid campaign. Conversely, like Portsmouth’s first Championship return, Charlton are set for a survival battle. With a PR of 74, they’re tipped to finish 24th, rooted at the bottom of the division. Can they defy the odds?

Using the PRs as a relative guide to fixture difficulty, Portsmouth face one of the toughest starts to the Championship season—the third most challenging overall. This is primarily due to a demanding early run that includes four high-calibre away fixtures against Southampton, Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Birmingham City within their opening 12 matches. How Mousinho navigates this challenging opening stretch is likely to set the tone for the rest of the campaign.

As the new season approaches, securing key personnel both on and off the pitch remains vital for Portsmouth. At this point, the projections above can't account for any incoming transfers—signings that could significantly shift the club’s trajectory. The same holds true for their Championship rivals. Director of Football Richard Hughes and Head of Recruitment Bradley Wall face a crucial summer, tasked with strengthening the squad where necessary while rigorously applying the club’s data-driven recruitment model to ensure smart investment without overspending. Their efforts will be tested immediately, with Pompey opening the campaign away at Oxford United’s Kassam Stadium—a fixture that should offer an early benchmark of where they stand competitively.